Sustainable Energy Blog

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The G8 meeting in Gleneagles 2005 was a trigger for actions related to energy efficiency and where the IEA has a major role. The stakeholders in this process is however growing and sometimes referred to as +5 (China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa) making the group 13 rather than 8. The reason is obvious when we consider the size and even more the growth-rate, and the implications on climate, from these countries. This widening of the circle is about to be institutional also since GLOBE (Global Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment), which is an organisation of parliamentarians, under its EU chair Anders Wijkman further develops the dialogue of the 13. This short-circuiting of a basically analytical work into the world of the legislators is a very promising for the outcome of the work.

Originating from substitutions by more powerful types

In countries like Germany, Denmark, or the Netherlands, wind power is already so widespread that few on shore sites are left where new units can be built. Two main paths are being followed to further increase the electrical power generated by wind: building off shore wind parks, and replacing existing wind turbines by new and larger types (3 up to 5 MW). The older, replaced types are appearing on the second hand market and will allow new (developing) countries to start with wind power at lower cost

Do you remeber the Wright brothers and their first flight? Only in their fourth attempt the managed to stay in the air for 59 seconds and over a distance of 243 meters. Now some Japanese students have managed to fly 391 meters in 59 seconds powered by 160 AA-batteries! A small lift for man but a great for mankind?

First year of operation of a mega wind turbine

In the past decennium, wind turbines have been growing quickly, both in height and in output power. The most recent generation typically has a tower height of 120 meter, a rotor diameter of 125 meter, and an output power of 5 MW. The first of this “mega turbines� that became operational was the REpower 5M on shore wind turbine in Burnsbüttel near Hamburg (Germany), inaugurated 2 February 2005. In its first year of operation, it produced 13 GWh, which was more than expected. After this test run, the annual production is expected to raise to 17 GWh. Several more mega wind turbines have recently been inaugurated or are being built in Germany (on shore and off shore) and Scotland (off shore).

One of Europe’s main seminars on wind energy

From 26 to 28 October 2006, TU Delft (Netherlands) will host the sixth international workshop on large-scale integration of wind power. The focus will lie on large-scale integration of wind power, and on transmission networks for offshore wind farms. The workshop is a joined initiative of TU Delft, Energynautics GmbH, and the KTH Stockholm, and has in six years developed into a major event in this field in Europe. During two days, it provides an excellent platform for exchanging knowledge and share experiences. Presentations of speakers from leading research institutes and industrial companies will be alternated with time for in-depth discussions and brainstorming. The workshop is concluded by a field trip to the off-shore wind park in Egmont aan Zee.

The IEA has for a long time been known to produce excellent statistics over energy in all parts of the world and occasionally also interesting insights on energy policy and technology. The latter however with a much more uneven quality. One of the useful statistic products is a pocket guide that can be downloaded as pdf and gives very useful data not only for the IEA member countries but for a wide range of other countries, 136 to be more precise!

A product that is close to the statistics is the analysis with indicators on the period of 30 years that the IEA has existed and that has produced the nowadays well-known graph showing the importance of the “Negawatthours” produced. Absent efficiency improvements we would have to use almost 50% more energy to maintain the standard of living we are enjoying today. This book is also available for free download now.

And only recently the IEA has released a new product aimed at being a periodical just as their well-known World Energy Outlook, WEO. The new one is called ETP, Energy Technology Perspectives and uses scenario-technique to investigate the possibilities and robustness of energy policies suggested and applied. The book deserves to be a bestseller, which however hardly is likely with the pricing the IEA has. On the other hand the price is a bit above the price of a barrel of oil and could save many such if carefully studied and applied in practice.

The message of their publication is basically optimistic and shows that there are several technology portfolios that can be effective for reducing the climate impact but also the energy efficiency is the key-element that should be used in all the portfolios the guarantee a favourable result. Or to quote directly from the general director of the IEA, Mr Claude Mandil:

Energy efficiency is essential to mitigate growth in energy demand and CO2 emissions Improved energy efficiency is an indispensable component of any policy mix, said Mr. Mandil, and it is available immediately. - Accelerating energy efficiency improvements alone can reduce the world’s energy demand in 2050 by an amount equivalent to almost half of today’s global energy consumption. Governments, in both OECD and non-OECD countries, must be willing to implement measures that encourage the investment in energy-efficient technologies, Mr. Mandil added.

We have got used to over the short period of about a year that strategic energy issues are tackled beginning with the need to be more energy efficient thereby reducing the need to supply. This insight, however simple, obvious and natural as it is, has certainly been a new attitude from world leaders and we got used to it quickly. The running up to the G8 meeting however shows that not all in the “entourage” of the world leaders has yet reached this level of wisdom.

Comparing the final version of the G8 document on Energy Security with a leaked one-week older version shows that energy efficiency was not a very well-known item for the authors. The final version is a bit better but still is mainly a supply-side document and with a heavy slant to speak on behalf of the traditional oil- and gas-companies. Maybe not a surprise if we consider that Russia chairs the G8.

Whichever way we want to look at the matters it seems as if the European Union has the strongest momentum within its directorate for Energy to be the balancing and sensible part to maintain and amplify that sustainability begins (sine qua non) with energy efficiency.

 

We are not on course, but it is not a lost cause

Due to excessive greenhouse gas emissions, the world is not on course for a sustainable energy future. Following a request of the G8 summit at Gleneagles in July 2005, the International Energy Agency published a report that outlines energy technology perspectives for the near future, and proposes scenarios and strategies for 2050 to turn back the tide.

The alarming outlook that we see today can still be changed. It would require significant but not disproportionate efforts. Those are the main conclusions of this paper, which subsequently works out various “Accelerated Technology Scenarios� to bring back CO2 emissions to the current value by 2050, moderating at once the growth of oil demand. The technologies used in these scenarios are expected to have an incremental cost lower than USD 25 per tonne of avoided CO2. The demand for energy services is expected to keep pace with the growing economy.

In all of the proposed scenarios, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic, a portfolio of available technologies is applied. Technologies to lower carbon emissions exist, but none of them will be able to make a difference on its own. Energy efficiency gains, biofuels, and partially decarbonised electricity generated by nuclear, renewable, natural gas, or clean coal energy: they will all have to contribute. And, in all the scenarios, fossil fuels will still supply most of the world’s energy by 2050.

Already looking beyond 2050

The most optimistic scenario proposed in the report is called TECH Plus, and results in -16% CO2 emissions by 2050. It relies however on a fast rate of technical progress. Some of the technological breakthroughs this scenario counts on are more likely to happen after 2050.

For that matter, the report emphasizes that the issue of climate change will by no matter be solved in 2050 - further measures that reduce greenhouse gas emissions below current levels will be necessary to avoid drastic climate change. Consequently, electricity generation and transport will need to be decarbonized nearly entirely in the second half of the century.

Policy implications

Which actions do policy makers have to take for implementing one of the Accelerated Technology scenarios? In each case, energy efficiency should get top priority. It is the cheapest and most environmentally friendly way to save CO2. The Accelerated Technology scenarios rely upon 45% up to 53% of CO2 emission reductions realized by energy efficiency gains, mainly in buildings, industry and transport. New buildings should become 70% more efficient – a striking figure.

Another policy attention area should be the development and support of well focussed R&D programmes, as well as support for the transition of technologies from R&D phase to the actual technology deployment. And last but not least, a stable, long term policy environment that promotes low carbon energy options is indispensable.

A creative comparison by the Washington Post

May 10 2006, the Washington Post published a remarkable opinion article by Cass R Sunstein comparing the anticipated cost to the U.S. economy of joining the Kyoto protocol, with the cost of the Iraq war. The cost of the war is currently estimated to be around $300 billion and will raise to $500 billion and possibly $1 trillion or more by the time it ends. The cost of joining the Kyoto protocol was estimated to be $325 billion for the U.S., designed to capture the full cost of compliance over many decades.

Tomorrow July 15 the G8 summit begins and it has energy security as the number 1 item on their agenda. But apart from that, the topics seem to be very mixed. Basically there is the concern about the Russian gas and the fact that Russia (and Gazprom) has such a strong position in all Europe (see Le Monde July 5: “Gazprom Le bras armé du Kremlin”). Nuclear will be discussed in the context of emerging nations, but so will Energy Efficiency , raised by Japan.

As with so many other summit meetings some of the more interesting results may only be read between the lines and may also require a trained eye to be visualised. Some of the working meetings held have a promising tone for sustainable energy in that they have stressed energy efficiency as a corner stone for all supply decisions to be based upon. You will be able to follow the news on the G8-website and form your own opinion.

Is psychology one of the factors we forget when we lament over the low implementation rate of energy efficiency measures? Audits and assessments are often delivering a list of measures to be undertaken in sequence and ranged according to profitability. The problem however is that these lists lack context. The facility managers may have no problem to take the advice but in the business there are many other concerns than just energy and energy bills. And these concerns should be addresses to create a positive situation for the energy efficiency measures rather than a suspicious, indifferent or even hostile.

Alliance to Save Energy in the U.S. has published a report called “World-Class Energy Assessments” that addresses and highlights the need to involve the entire business management and in a way that they find appropriate. The method has some resemblance with so called road-mapping that also has as its basic idea to be more comprehensive than just stopping with the technology potential as such.

This week the UK government has published its energy report that has been said to advocate a further building of nuclear reactors. The political debate has already started and the Conservative party has published a report in which they argue that nuclear power should be the last option and not the first. But apart from this they also argue to introduce the idea a capacity payment system that will reward so called Demand Response, which means incentives to reduce peak power and capacity strains.

The institute for public policy research, IPPR, is also anticipating the outcome of the government report and has issued a list of measures intended to, as the say, solve the security of supply anxiety. The strength of this document is, not the least, depending on that it is based on official documentation from the UK administration.

Hopefully the debate will not derail into only a pro- and contra-nuclear only but acknowledge that energy efficiency measures should be exploited first since they are (as IPPR points out) the more cost-efficient under all circumstances.

In this new briefing paper, Rob Van Gerwen, Saskia Jaarsma and Rob Wilhite from  KEMA cover a topic that recently has attracted much attention. Smart metering promises many benefits and projects in Europe, the USA and other countries show that smart metering is technically feasible. Main issues are the actual value of the benefits, the cost involved and the distribution of cost and benefits of smart metering between market parties involved. An advanced metering infrastructure offers the possibility for additional energy related services such as demand side management and realisation of virtual power plants. The future of smart metering will depend heavily on the policy and decisiveness of the governmental bodies involved. Energy savings and an increased security of supply will be main drivers and believe in smart metering as a means to reach these goals is indispensable.

The World Resource Institute has recently published the yearbook that contains a lot of useful material, cases and suggestions on how poor economies could improve. There is an extensive energy statistics appendix that is useful also since the data provide useful comparisons between countries.

One of the purposes for the yearbook is to investigate how the world is doing with the “millennium goals”, a task that also gives interesting dynamic information such as in this figure.

Results of a UK Survey

As part of the Domestic Field Trial on Photovoltaics (PV), two surveys have been carried out with regard to post occupancy and post selling. The results give a good overview of user perceptions of PV although they have to be read cautiously in view of the 53 % return rate. The post selling survey was originally aimed at private developers in order to evaluate their acceptance level, impact on house prices and uptake of PV by the building industry but was finally extended to public sites.

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Last week there was a competition for solar powered boats in the Netherlands. And there is an amazing fleet of different constructions. There are also races for solar cars in Australia every year. No doubt these vehicles will not be of much use taking the family to weekend shopping, but they are very interesting as examples of technology applications, for awareness raising and for stimulating fantasy and innovations. Should we not arrange more of that and also for other areas than solar power?

World Resource Institute, WRI, has produced a step-by-step guide for the service sector in a handbook that enables business to do-it-themselves. The handbook also has some catchy case-presentations that could serve as examples and appetizers:

• GE made a new business strategy
• IKEA and DHL included a view on customers emissions (scope 3)
• Cone Inc. used papers use as awareness indicator for the staff
• Coastal Enterprises Inc. applied the different boundaries for their decision structure
• WRI themselves developed methods to consider employees commuting

 

Many countries have rather severe restrictions and building regulations that prevent such additions to buildings that will harm the neighbours perception of a good environment. And for good reasons. But these restrictions may also have hampered small scale and microgeneration that may not be that harmful. In United Kingdom there are initiatives under way to open for a wider use of microgeneration. Or as they say; Microgeneration should not only be for the rich and the filmstars, but for the people.

Climate change policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will produce significant side benefits in terms of reduced air pollution and improved public health, according to a recent report from the European Environment Agency. Climate policies, aiming at limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, would in addition:

• improve Europe’s air quality
• cut premature deaths by more than 20,000/year as a result of lower concentrations of ground level ozone and fine particulates
• save 10 billion EUR annually in air pollution control costs by 2030

There is certainly no lack of newsletters, but CE’s twice yearly CEMissions describing ongoing sustainability projects in the environment sector merits special attention. The spring issue features a number of projects on transport, emission trading, suasion approaches for consumers and corporations, the sustainability of biomass, etc. CE is becoming increasingly known for its wholistic approaches:

• looking beyond the borders (of Europe), to agricultural and shipping practices
• looking beyond environmental performance, to labour conditions in developing countries, for example
• looking beyond products to a ‘craddle-to-grave’ approach
• looking beyond factory gates to suppliers and customers

CE’s website offers many of its reports in the public domain, often in English, and provides an excellent knowledge repository to stimulate lifecycle thinking.

One of the most well covered experiments in transportation is probably the test with congestion charges in Stockholm. The idea is basically the same as in London but somewhat differently executed. The trial period is very short (6 months) which will be followed by a referendum in September among the citizens of Stockholm.

The evaluation (full report only available in Swedish, but summary in English) shows that traffic to the city has been reduced by 20-25%, emission of carbon dioxide with 13%. There is also significant reduction in emission of harmful particles in the city.

But the great surprise to many is probably that trade has not been negatively affected. A topic that has taken a great proportion in the political debate. On the contrary! The positive effects on the economy are huge and the project has a payback time of some 4 years which is short for a transportation project. The benefits come largely from shorter travel time and predictable arrivals! Especially business’ short transports and deliveries have been improved.

The Swedish prime-minister has called a special commission to outline how Sweden should significantly reduce its dependence on oil. The ambition is that up till 2020:

• Road transport should reduce the use by 40-50%
  
• Heating of buildings should be oil-free
  
• Industry should reduce it’s use by 25-40%

In all the ambition is to reach further than the EU target of 1% per year efficiency improvement over a 9-year period to a 1.5% improvement over a 14-year period (till 2020).

The underlying reasons are that: climate impact should be reduced; Long-term energy-supply be secured; Sweden be a pioneering country for new technologies; The international competitiveness be improved; The domestic resources from the agricultural sector be more extensively used.
There has been established a five-issue strategy that holds a few for the context surprising elements. One is that they have avoided to “substitution�-line in thinking (that one fuel should be directly replaced by another) that is the standard in many political documents and debates. Instead they take a comprehensive view and announce that the strategy begins with an all-comprising efficiency in the society as a whole. Quite logical since after a lowering of the energy demand it is easier to find the (amounts of) fuel needed.
Another “surprise� is that the strategy also targets the use of electricity in spite of the fact that the use of oil for generation of electricity in Sweden is marginal. The commission has instead continued its comprehensive look on the system as a whole where all pieces relate to each other. Lowering the use of electricity reduces the pressure to use fossil fuels for generation (and for that matter also other fuels that could create environmental problems).
The strategy is based on five “substrategies� that are overarching:

1. The all-comprising efficiency-improvement.
   
2. A quantum-leap in use of fuels from the agricultural sector
   
3. Efficiency-improvements and reduction in the use of electricity
   
4. Restrictive use of natural gas but improved use of bio-gas from local sources
   
5. Measures within a EU context
   

Unfortunately the last one is bleak. Sweden opts in to be a forceful driver to improve the trading system. Fine but would there not have been any more concrete thing were Sweden could have shown a good example of its leadership in action?

The challenge of the Belgium’s new Research Station on Antarctica is 3-fold:

• Design and build the first ever polar research station fully relying on sustainable energy for energy supply and with a minimal ecological footprint: the choice and the tests of materials and technologies will respect the principles of the eco-construction in order to reduce the environmental impact of the establishment of the base. The greatest part of the energy needs will be satisfied by means of renewable sources of energy, which will make this new Belgian base the first in the world in this field.
• Without compromising on scientific programme, living conditions, efficiency, safety, operational costs: target will be to demonstrate the feasibility of sustainable construction in extreme environments, creating opportunities to export the Antartic solutions to ‘normal’ world situations.
• With a high level of adaptability to future needs: the processes of water treatment used on the sites will be studied to determine the most effective methods making it possible to prevent any pollution to the environment and to facilitate the drainage worn of the Antarctic continent.

Its programme is expected to involve scientists from European nations as well as other international researchers, including Japan with the hope to answer key questions about the vast Antarctic continent and our planet’s endangered climate.

Passive Building

The building design shows a need for balancing the various parameters such as a glazed surface with automated solar protection and control, thermal mass using the locally available granite rocks, phase change building materials, insulation, …

Princess Elisabeth Station needs minimal additional heating (electrical resistances to heat up air in different ventilation circuits) but on the other side, does not suffer uncontrollable overheating due to balanced ventilation with heat and moisture recovery. It also enables comfortable day lighting levels but roof lights are necessary.

The energy concept

Heat side:

• Solar thermal water melting and heating
• 30 sq.m high performance flat plate collectors
• Electrical backup

Electricity side

• Wind turbines
• Photovoltaic panels
• Lead-acid battery storage
• Fuelled generator back-up

More information

Fragmentation is high cost for the economy

To achieve Kyoto targets, the EU promotes renewable energy sources (RES), energy efficiency and biofuels. This has resulted in several directives and regulations, each pursuing its own objectives. The implementation of this policy is left to the national or regional authorities, resulting in a patchwork of support schemes throughout Europe, not always compatible with the principles of the free internal European market. To make the EU support as cost-efficient as possible, harmonization will be essential. For renewables for example, a European-wide support scheme seems more favourable than the existing national support schemes.

View paper

Following ‘how precious is a kWh‘ and ‘how precious is a m3 gas‘, and using a sheet from Good Energy, we can estimate the amount of energy services that emits a kg of CO2 (specific for the UK system). A kg of CO2 emissions results from:

• operating an electric radio alarm clock for 23 days
• a 15 minute shower (or a 7 minute power shower)
• 20 minutes of gas cooking, or one hour of electric cooking
• 6 days of refrigeration (with a modern unit)
• 4 km travel by car, 16 km of travel by bus, train or tube
• Using a computer for 5 working days (9 hours)
• Operating a lift for 40 minutes
• Less than 1% of the distance Heathrow - Paris by air
• Transporting 3 bottles of wine from New Zealand
• Transporting 25% of a Red Snapper from the Indian Ocean
• 9 steak and ale pies made on-site using local produce

These figures are based on the UK electricity system (473 g CO2/kWh). For electricity applications in other countries, figures need to be adjusted depending on the relative carbon intensity of electricity generation. For example (source: Greenhouse Gas Protocol):

• Norway: 9 g CO2/kWh (i.e. multiple by 53)
• France: 82 g CO2/kWh
• China: 771
• India: 912 (i.e. divide by 1.9)

This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Community to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2004 by individual Member State and by economic sector. The report shows that, between 2003 and 2004, emissions in the 15 pre-2004 Member States increased by 11.5 million tonnes, or 0.3% and total EU emissions increased by 0.4%.

Reducing energy losses with DC systems

Many residential electrical applications have DC inside, produced by a small rectifier. Bundling those rectifiers into one at the site of the grid interface could reduce energy losses. It also eliminates reactive power, largely reduces stand-by losses, facilitates the improvement of power quality, and makes the integration of small distributed generation units easier. The following paper from KULeuven’s ESAT/Electa group weighs these advantages against the technical complications. It concludes that for one residential unit, it is not recommended since in-house conduction losses are low. But combining DC power in house and DC at the lowest level of the distribution grid could have an interesting future.

View paper

No doubt many big companies have discovered that sustainability is big, growing and future business, but they have a heritage that looms over them. And sometimes the actions makes the picture of the companies fall apart. We may have to accept that it takes some time to change the course of these huge tankers (pun intended!), but the public light is upon them and we expect the talk to be returned in the walk. And they are indeed, as the figure below shows, aware of the public light.

Some of the real big companies in Europe have made a point of their willingness to work towards sustainability and the need for an orchestrated play between governments and markets to achieve the goals. Their arguments show a profound insight in how the market develops with learning and innovations, and that the process needs to incentivised with both carrots and sticks.

The delegation that went to Downing Street 10 obviously acted on behalf parts of British Industry but that does not make their message less valid but rather more imperative for other countries if they do not want to be left behind.